Doubt over Brown’s chances of No 10

THE stunning election upset in Dunfermline early today has created a massive headache for the Holyrood coalition, even bigger problems for holding Labour together north and south of the border, and potential disaster for Gordon Brown's hopes of becoming prime minister.

Jack McConnell and Nicol Stephen will have to use all their political skills to keep their devolved coalition show on the road, after LibDems focused their attack on Labour, avoided flak for devolved issues, and inflicted unprecedented damage on its senior partner.

However, the legacy of this morning's extraordinary result is going to reverberate more significantly around Westminster. Catherine Stihler, Labour's candidate, can go back to work as an MEP, and expect her first child next month, but for Mr Brown, his day job at the Treasury is going to look very different when he returns from Moscow.

Although not on the ballot form, Mr Brown was the big loser last night. The chancellor must fear that Tony Blair's delayed departure from Number 10, allied to the impact of David Cameron re-positioning the Conservative party on New Labour's front lawn, have allied with the voters of Dunfermline to weaken his claim on the premiership he craves.

For Mr Brown, this is personal – because he made it so. With the death of Rachel Squire last month, Labour rushed into a brief campaign, with what seemed to be a safe bet that they could capitalise on the combination of her legacy, a big majority, and two rivals vying to establish themselves in second place.

Mr Brown swung into action as the neighbouring MP, eager to show his Westminster colleagues he is a vigorous election-winner. It is by a measure of his own choosing that the chancellor has become an election loser.

If anyone is harbouring plans to stand against him when Tony Blair stands down (John Reid, the defence secretary, for instance?) Fife voters yesterday gave him some powerful ammunition.

Where did Labour go wrong? Mr Brown looked out of touch, making his campaign appear nervy and insecure throughout, starting with an unforced blunder into a row about reserved and devolved powers over the Forth road bridge tolls and replacement. Trying to talk positively about the economy, countering the loss of 700 Lexmark jobs at Rosyth, and its distant promise off 10,000 jobs in the next 10 years, clearly failed to work.

But this was not only a Labour loss. It was grim news for Alex Salmond, who ran an "independence-lite" campaign in circumstances that should have been a platform for the Scottish National Party. Voters failed to respond to a parochial campaign about shoddy retail provision and the local hospital, and the party's momentum remains stalled yet again.

The result was also about a winner. Willie Rennie, the new Liberal Democrat MP for Dunfermline and West Fife, has been the cheerful Kelty face of a huge LibDem campaign effort. The party claims to have leafleted all 35,000 homes each day this week, with MSPs required to turn out by 6am yesterday morning for the final drop.

LibDems proved their formidable by-election machine works even in the toughest of times. Labour will not like it, but there are lessons there it needs to learn from its coalition partners.

The Herald